The Inferno: Coaching Changes, Recruiting, and Year 2
Masterfully authored by One Eyed Willy.
If you are anything like me, you have spent a majority of your time these last few weeks scouring one of the many Florida blogs or message boards hoping each time you click on a website or hit the refresh button you get some positive recruiting news. And if you are anything like me, you are probably about to throw yourself out of your 11th story office window because positive UF recruiting news has been extremely hard to come by. Unfortunately there is an awning nine floors down that would slow my fall resulting only in serious injuries and not instant death, so I don’t even really have that to look forward to.
Since November, UF has have lost four committed recruits (Jeoffrey Pagan, Nick Waisome, Ryan Shazier and Chase Hounshell) and gained only one (Jabari Gorman). Not exactly the direction you want to be heading when you hire a “relentless recruiter” like Boom. Add that to the fact that we have to listen to how great FSU, Alabama, LSU, Clemson and others are doing in recruiting and you might even been longing for the days when we were watching Mike Pouncey roll the snap to John Brantley and Deonte Thompson practicing the old “tip drill” on each and every pass thrown in his direction.
But with all that has gone on with regards to the Gator football program over the last 13 or so months, is there really a valid reason to be upset with this year’s recruiting class? Let’s take a quick look back at the past year of Gator pigskin, in chronological order (should you need it, there is an air sickness bag in the seat pocket directly in front of you):
UF gets punked by Bama in the 2009 SEC Championship Game, Urban Meyer gets severe ingestion, Urban Meyer retires, Urban Meyer comes back, UF looks like world-beaters against Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl (mind you, Cincy is only the Big East Champ and is without their head coach), UF has #1/#2 ranked recruiting class in the country, Urban Meyer takes a leave of absence and Steve Addazio takes over (if we only knew then what was in store for the balded wonder), Carl Moore and others get in trouble, UF practices are closed to the public (I wonder why!), Brantley and the offense look good in the O&B game, UF has trouble with Miami (not that Miami!) in the opening game, UF struggles with USF but pulls it out in second half, Chris Rainey thinks it’s time for his girlfriend to die, a fake punt helps UF beat Tennessee, Trey Burton beats Kentucky, UF gets really punked by Bama, Les Miles fakes a field goal and the only people who don’t realize its coming are the Gators (even the fans gave up in this game), we didn’t just lose at home to Mississippi State at homecoming, did we?, we beat Georgia, we beat Vanderbilt, get pushed around by Steve Spurrier and the Cocks, kill some Div IAA school, get humiliated by FSU, Urban Meyer quits to spend time with his family (or is it because he is sick? or is it to take a gig with ESPN? or is it…….?), UF hires a coach with no head coaching experience that only the people who really follow college football know is a great hire, new coach hires a bunch of guys with NFL experience (including one BIG hire), and finally we are back to square one where we lose four recruits and only get one in return. Man, I am tired. And nauseous.
With all that said, what is happening at UF on the recruiting front is not all that abnormal. I wanted to take a look at how other schools did in recruiting the year that they hired new coaches. I stuck with big-name schools and big-name coaches, as these are of course the most relevant to UF. Here is what I found (all of the following numbers are according to Rivals.com):
As you can see, with the exception of USC last year, most teams with new coaches struggled to break the top 10 in recruiting rankings the year of the head coaching turnover regardless of their historical success. Some of this may be due to a new coach that didn’t have a very recognizable name or a resume filled with head coaching experience (Ron Zook [excuse me, I just threw up a little in my mouth], Bret Bielema, Gene Chizik, Dan Mullen). And some of this may be due to a team that frankly just wasn’t good for the years prior to the new head coach coming on board (Charlie Weis at Notre Dame, Spurrier at South Carolina, Randy Shannon at Miami, Bo Pelini at Nebraska). Whatever the reason, teams have typically struggled to put together a top-notch recruiting class the year that new coaches were brought on board.
As it stands right now, UF is no different. Currently, UF has the 18th ranked recruiting class in the nation, with 1,377 recruiting points and an average star rating of 3.53. This is fairly in line with the averages presented above. And although there are thoughts that our ranking could go up should we land the likes of Curtis Grant or Anthony Chickillo or Timmy Jernigan, other teams will undoubtedly land additional guys as well so I would not expect our overall ranking to climb too much higher than where it presently stands.
Now what if we look forward to next year? Can we expect a large jump in our recruiting class compared to this year after Will Muschamp and staff has had a year under their belt? Well, if you look at past data, the answer is probably yes. Here is how the teams listed above faired in their second year of recruiting under the new coaching regime (I had to disregard Tennessee’s class in 2010 as we all know that Kiffin just couldn’t seem to stick around for a second year in Knoxville):
So based on this information, we could expect UF’s recruiting class to be seven to eight positions higher next year assuming that the Gators have an above-average year on the field in 2011 and that a majority of the coaching staff stays on board. Of course, that would only leave UF’s 2012 recruiting class in the 10th or 11th spot in the nation, and we all know that’s not going to be good enough for us die-hard Gators. Guess it’s time to open the window again! If I get a running start, I’m sure I can jump clear of that damn awning.
About the Author: One Eyed Willy comes from a long line of Gators. Rumor has it his great great grandfather – William Blindside – was the first person to actively “recruit” high school athletes to the University of Florida. One Eyed Willy has a passion for all things orange and blue and although he frequently threatens to hurl himself off a bridge when the Gators falter, he picks himself right back up with the hope that is a new sports season.