Wednesdays with Willy: B.J. Daniels, Miami, and Going Undefeated

Another question and answer session with

Is it better for USF long-term that B.J. Daniels has to play now? Or does getting his first collegiate start in Tallahassee against FSU spell disaster?

I think the simple answer to this question is

“yes”

as long as you emphasis the word

“long-term.”

I think it goes without saying that B.J. Daniels will not be as successful THIS YEAR as

Matt Grothe

would have been. After all, there is a reason why one was the 4-year starter and one was the freshman back-up. But in the long-term, this will be invaluable to the maturation of B.J. It’s a lot like the situation with

Jacory Harris

at

Miami

. There were a lot of people scratching their heads last year as to why

Randy Shannon

was starting

Robert Marve

but having Harris play a lot as well. That game plan resulted in a less than stellar season for the Canes in 2008, but the experience that Harris had last year has certainly helped him in 2009 now that he is the captain of the proverbial ship. I think the situation will be similar for USF. This year will be a struggle, but rather than having a sophomore play next year with little or no experience, you will have a sophomore that has almost a full year of top-tier college football experience under his belt.

2 victories later and Miami is #9 in the AP Poll? Too high or just right? This goes back to the old question of what do the polls really look at it. If we are basing the polls strictly on what teams have done so far this year than I don’t have a problem with putting Miami in the top 10. They are one of only a few teams in the country to have played two top 25 teams this early in the season and won both games (they may be the only team, but I didn’t have time to research!). And their victories do seem to be fairly decent at this point. At first I thought the FSU-Miami game was a battle of two mediocre teams and my theory was confirmed the following week when FSU squeaked out a win versus the powerhouse of Jacksonville (AL) State University. But FSU’s last week performance against #7 BYU on the road made me a believer in the Noles and I would be surprised if they weren’t in the top 25 at the end of the season. Georgia Tech on the other hand obviously is not as good as everyone thought they would be. Their defense is downright awful and their triple option offense is a nice little gimmick, but it doesn’t work when you are down by 14 points or more and it seems to be one of those offenses that opposing defensive coaches start to get after seeing it one or two times (see last half of the GT-Clemson game). Still, I think GT will end up with about an 8-4 record and probably in the top 25 as well when all is said and done. So you really have to hand in to Miami for how it has played thus far – probably the surprise of the year in college football at this point.

But, if you are a believer, like I am, that the polls should not only take into account what you have done thus far but also look into the future and predict how you will finish the season, than I think Miami is ranked a wee-bit too high. I still think that Miami will lose 3-4 games this year and probably will end up the season ranked around #20. A good season and a building block for their future, but not a top 10 performance in my opinion. In fact, they remind me a lot of that USF team a couple of years ago that had a real quick start, beating Auburn on the road and a couple of other quality teams. That USF made its wall all the way up to #2 in the nation before being beaten-down back to reality. I think you will see the same thing happen to Miami this year.

If you are asking me to rank Miami right now, I would probably have them about #15. But, if Miami can pull off a win this weekend at Virginia Tech and then if they can beat Oklahoma at home in their next game, I truly believe that they will have to be in discussion as the #1 team in the country. If you play and beat four top 25 teams in the first few weeks of the season, you deserve all the accolades you can get and the respect of the entire college football community – including from Gator fans.

Florida, Alabama, or Texas…who is the most likely to end the regular season undefeated? Just looking at those three teams, how they have played thus far, who they have played thus far, and who they have left to play, I would have to say that I think that Alabama has the best chance to go undefeated in the REGULAR SEASON. Alabama has already beaten one top 10 team and only plays two more ranked teams the rest of the season. After watching Ole Miss, I think they are overrated so I think that Bama will beat them on the road without too much of a problem. The last big test for Bama will come against LSU and they get to play them at home so that is a huge advantage. For the Gators, our season lives and dies by the game against LSU – at LSU at night! We win that game and I think we are home free. But if we play like we did against Tennessee than I have some serious doubts about our ability to go into Baton Rouge and win a night game against the Tigers. As for Texas, I really think they are going to get tripped up somewhere along the way. The easy guess is of course is in their game against Oklahoma, but I also think they are going to have some trouble with Oklahoma State who has been forgotten about since that devastating lose to Houston. One team that was left off the list was Penn State. I think of all the teams in the top 10 (maybe excluding Boise State), Penn State has the best chance of going undefeated. They have to go to Michigan in a couple of weeks and play a severely overrated Wolverines team and then they have the big one against the Buckeyes at home. I think they win both those games, finish the year undefeated, and a have a great chance of being in the BCS National Championship Game.