21-8 doesn’t seem bad. In fact, it seems pretty good. 21-8 is good enough to get
Syracuse
the #25 spot in the current AP Poll and USA Today Poll. However, it’s not good enough to get
Florida
even one vote in either. And as we get close to Selection Sunday, it may actually keep the Gators out of the tournament.
This past weekend, ESPN noted several factors the NCAA Tournament selection committee took into account that may or may not be items the general public was aware of. First of all, a team’s RPI might not hold as much weight as one thinks. It’s important, but what the committee is really looking at in terms of RPI is how a team fared against those ranked in the RPI Top 50 and in the RPI Top 100. And you can throw conference RPI out the window. They don’t care about that one. This hurts Florida – quite a bit actually. The Gators are 2-6 against the Top 50 with wins over only South Carolina and Washington. Basically, Florida has two even somewhat impressive wins. Given the fact that they also have a loss to the same South Carolina team, that one might not matter though. Against the Top 100, it doesn’t get much better. The Gators are 6-7.
Another factor is how the team played over the final stretch. In the past, this was thought to be the team’s final 10 games. It’s actually the final 12. This is part of what killed Florida’s hopes last season. In 2007-08, the Gators were 5-7 over their final 12 regular season games. With two games left to go this season, Florida is 5-5 and in serious danger of finishing exactly like last season’s NIT-bound squad did.
Based on all of this and their entire body of work, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi thinks the Gators are among the first four out at the moment. So what does Florida have to do to get into the NCAA Tournament? Well, I won’t say the final two regular season games are must-wins, because I’ve misused that term in the past. Technically the only must-wins are the SEC Tournament games. But they’re about as close as you can get.
One-Eyed Willy offers up his thoughts – assuming the Gators don’t make it easy and win the conference tourney – and I just happen to agree:
“I think it’s pretty simple right now. Florida has to win the last two and at least one in the SEC Tournament to make it in. Winning two in the tourney would make the Gators a lock, I believe, but one may be enough. One good thing is Kentucky is also on the bubble and Florida plays them in the last game of the regular season at home. The committee may end up looking at that game and picking the winner to go to the Big Dance and the loser goes to the NIT.”
If Florida wins the final two regular season games, that puts them at 23-8 (10-6). From the outside, that looks like more than enough to get a bid. Regardless of what happens in the SEC Tournament, the Gators can’t get to 10 losses and should be in good shape to go dancing. However, as previously stated, Florida’s body of work isn’t all that impressive, so a win in the tourney just might be required. But before it gets to that point, the Gators must travel to Mississippi State on Wednesday and play another tough weekday night game on the road.
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