The Florida Gators move up to number four in the latest BCS standings after the loss by previous number one Kansas State and number two Oregon. The Gators BCS average of .8434 trails only Georgia at .8763 in 3rd, Alabama at .9333 in 2nd, and new number one Notre Dame at .9973. Notre Dame is pretty much a unanimous number one as the only undefeated left and realistically needs only to beat USC this weekend to punch their ticket to Miami and the BCS Championship game.
Florida is still the darling of the computers though as a consensus number two with their 10-1 record against the toughest schedule in the nation. The human polls, however, are still not convinced with their continued underwhelming performances the last few weeks. The Gators still have a backdoor shot at making the BCS title game but would need a preponderance of circumstances for that to happen.
First, and foremost, they will have to beat FSU this weekend. Not just win the game but beat them. They need to have an impressive enough win to convince voters to move them up into the top three. Second, and the easiest scenario, they would need Notre Dame to lose against USC dropping them below the Gators. With a Notre Dame loss, they very well could be in simply by beating the Seminoles as Alabama and Georgia play each other in the SEC Championship Game and the loser would most certainly drop below them. However, with the current of SEC backlash right now, it may be important for Florida to look competent in beating FSU to assure the SEC loser drops below them and that nobody leap frogs them.
If the Irish win this weekend, there still is a couple of longshot scenarios that could put the Gators in the big game. If either Alabama or Georgia lose in their finales and then wins the SEC Championship combined with a Florida win, the Gators would likely go. If both win their finales but they combine to play a sloppy championship game and Florida sufficiently dominates FSU causing voters to leapfrog Florida in the polls then they likely would have a shot as well.
Keep in mind the human polls are what matter for Florida right now. The computers have them penciled into the game. The Harris has them at 5 and the coaches have them at 6. If they were up to 4th in the human polls they would likely be ahead of Georgia right now. Regardless of what happens to the other teams, the Gators need to look impressive this weekend to have their best shot. Then they need to root against Notre Dame and, oddly enough, for Georgia against Alabama as they will be easier for the Gators to overcome in spite of their victory over Florida.
Stay tuned for another wild BCS ride in the final two weeks of the season. A lot can happen between now and then.